LIB 7.3%
Incumbent MP
Sam Duluk (IND), since 2020.
Geography
Southern Adelaide. Waite covers the suburbs of Bellevue Heights, Brown Hill Creek, Clapham, Hawthorn, Kingswood, Lower Mitcham, Lynton, Mitcham, Pasadena, Springfield, St Marys, Torrens Park, Westbourne Park as well as parts of Belair, Daw Park, Leawood Gardens and Panorama. Most of the electorate is contained within the Mitcham council area.
Redistribution
Waite shifted to the east, losing Coromandel East and Crafers West to Heysen and also losing Netherby and Urrbrae to Unley. Waite gained Clapham and Lower Mitcham from Unley and Bellevue Heights from Davenport. These changes decreased the Liberal margin from 7.8% to 7.3%.
History
The electorate of Waite has existed since 1993, when it mostly replaced the abolished district of Mitcham.
Mitcham had existed since 1938. The seat was held by Robin Millhouse from 1955, originally from the Liberal and Country League. He left the LCL in 1973 to join the Liberal Movement, and eventually served as the first Democrats member of Parliament from 1977 to 1982.
The 1982 Mitcham by-election was won by the Democrats’ Heather Southcott, but she lost the seat later that year at the general election to the Liberal Party’s Stephen Baker.
Baker held Mitcham until 1993, and then the renamed seat of Waite at the 1993 election. Baker served as Treasurer and Deputy Premier in the Brown government from 1993 until 1996, when both Brown and Baker were deposed from the Liberal Party leadership. Baker announced his retirement in late 1996, stepping down at the 1997 state election.
Martin Hamilton-Smith has held Waite since 1997. Hamilton-Smith led the Liberal Party from 2007 to 2009, and briefly served as deputy leader in 2010. Hamilton-Smith came within one vote of winning the leadership back in 2012, and was re-elected as a Liberal in 2014.
Hamilton-Smith resigned from the Liberal Party later in 2014 to sit as an independent, while also taking a ministry in the Labor minority government.
Hamilton-Smith retired in 2018. The redistribution moved a large part of Davenport into Waite, and Liberal MP Sam Duluk, who had won Davenport in 2015, shifted to Waite. Duluk resigned from the Liberal Party in 2020 over allegations of assault.
- Heather Holmes-Ross (Independent)
- Brendan White (Greens)
- Sam Duluk (Independent)
- Ben Freeling (Animal Justice)
- Catherine Hutchesson (Labor)
- Alexander Hyde (Liberal)
Assessment
Waite should return to the Liberal Party.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sam Duluk | Liberal | 11,115 | 45.2 | -8.0 | 44.4 |
| Cathy Hutchesson | Labor | 5,783 | 23.5 | -2.6 | 24.1 |
| Graham Davies | SA-Best | 3,870 | 15.7 | +15.7 | 16.2 |
| Brendan White | Greens | 2,607 | 10.6 | -5.0 | 10.5 |
| John Duncan | Australian Christians | 677 | 2.8 | -1.0 | 2.6 |
| Cathi Tucker | Dignity | 533 | 2.2 | +0.9 | 2.0 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 596 | 2.4 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sam Duluk | Liberal | 14,211 | 57.8 | -2.3 | 57.3 |
| Cathy Hutchesson | Labor | 10,374 | 42.2 | +2.3 | 42.7 |
Booths in Waite have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.2% in the centre to 59% in the south.
SA-Best came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.9% in the north to 17.2% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN prim | SAB prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 10.3 | 14.9 | 57.1 | 7,459 | 30.5 |
| South | 9.7 | 15.8 | 59.0 | 6,263 | 25.6 |
| Central | 12.5 | 17.2 | 53.2 | 4,550 | 18.6 |
| Other votes | 10.2 | 17.3 | 58.8 | 6,162 | 25.2 |
Election results in Waite at the 2018 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, SA-Best and the Greens.
Update on candidates – Alex Hyde, Liberal Candidate and Heather Holmes-Ross (Mayor of the LGA) independent.
Not knowing Holmes-Ross I wouldn’t know her chances but since she is Mayor she will have at least a shot at winning since independent mayors have been elected to state parliaments before. Also will Duluk be running for re-election? If he does there will be two high-profile indies in the same race for a single seat constituency (when did this last happen?).
Should be a very interesting seat. Could definitely see it being a 3 horse race between Hyde, Duluk and Ross-Holmes. I don’t think general sentiment favors Duluk given his name being dragged through the mud in the sexual assault case from 2019, now running as independent I just can’t see him being re-elected, despite a comfortable win in 2018. I think Ross-Holmes may actually have a chance of pulling an upset off against Hyde. Both live locally within Waite, however given her involvement in local council as ex-mayor of Mitcham, it would seem apparent that she has a closer finger to the pulse of Waite than Hyde, given his current involvement in Adelaide City Council.
Interesting to consider other factors such as two consecutive sitting members leaving their party during incumbency (other being M. Hamilton-Smith) can’t really bode well for voter confidence in their candidate. 2018 election saw a 2.3% swing toward Labor although still being a safe seat for the Liberals. Re-distributions also haven’t really favoured the Liberals here losing the northern corridor up to Cross RD, the largely liberal suburbs of Kingswood, Netherby, Urrbrae, and gaining more marginal areas like Bellevue Heights.
It looks to be the perfect conditions for a non-liberal candidate to win the seat. My gut feeling is it could go anyway, but at the same time can’t picture Waite being anything but a Liberal safe seat.